Global temperatures are rising at an unprecedented rate, but environmental responses can be quite difficult to recognise and quantify. On average plants are beginning to come into flower one month earlier than they did in the mid 1980’s. In the garden this year it does not appear to be so difficult to recognise after an unusually mild and dry winter period.
Autumn crocus were flowering at the same time as the spring varieties, appearing before Christmas, snowdrops have been more in evidence throughout January than any signs of snow itself. Yellow aconite has appeared along with some early primrose and other cultivars of Primula. Daffodils have appeared in isolated spots around town whilst in the garden their leaves are well-developed, with tulips not far behind.
This variation changes depending on the type of plant and also the region, further south the change is more pronounced whilst further north and also at higher altitudes changes are not quite so pronounced. Different plants also demonstrate different changes, so that herbaceous plants show the greatest variation flowering 32 days earlier. This variation changes depending on the type of plant and also the region, further south the change is more pronounced whilst further north and also at higher altitudes changes are not quite so great but this variation has decreased from nine days to days, meaning a greater uniformity.
On the 15th of February I was out on the usual mid morning spin with Yazoo around the local lake, access to many other areas is limited because the ground is now so wet we will only be able to venture onto the grass once the ground has had a chance to dry out with longer days and warmer temperatures. The rooks were starting to do their thing and were gathering ready to start nesting with lots of noisy groups forming in the usual locations. In the oak woodlands on the eastern bank of the lake a Greater spotted woodpecker was also getting his act together and drumming away ready to kick off the breeding program.
When I got back home I nipped around the back to quickly check the pond and lo and behold there was a newly laid bunch of frogspawn which must’ve been laid during the night. When I went back inside to make some coffee I noticed a hen blackbird collecting nesting material and flying off with it into the hedge.
The next day storm Dudley arrived and despite the strong winds and heavy rain I could see that the frog activity in the pond was in full party mode, oblivious to the weather conditions. The frogspawn was two weeks earlier than last year, but the hellebores seem to be closer to their normal pattern. Maybe Valentine’s Day, the middle of February is now the new marker for the beginning of spring.
One of the dangers of this early flowering is that there is a much greater risk of frost causing great damage which is not only a problem for gardeners but the horticultural industry and agriculture. Even greater risk are created by the increasing probability of what is known as ecological mismatch when plants and associated wildlife whether insects, birds, amphibians, reptiles and mammals are no longer synchronised with the seasonal food supply and this can cause species populations to collapse, for example great tits https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/science-blog/birds-time-breeding-hit-peak-caterpillar, and eventually entire ecosystems can follow like a stack of cards collapsing. These are clear signals we should not ignore.